What can the World Cup teach us about mathematical finance and futures?

On June 11, 2026, Mexico and South Africa’s national football teams will meet each other for the opening match of the 2026 Men’s Football FIFA World Cup. While neither of these teams are statistically likely to win the tournament, the match is still likely to generate much speculation, betting, and predictions.

What’s more, there are far more statistics than simply which is the winning team. Can you predict how many goals the match will be won by? What is your expectation for the number of players sent off?

Interestingly, in the world of hypotheticals and probabilities, the World Cup can actually give us an interesting window into how some aspects of financial mathematics may work.

Check out the full article by Sophie Maclean in the HLFF Blog for more: Football Finance, Part 1

Image caption: Artist’s rendition of the FIFA World Cup trophy. Source: Pierdisilvestre7 (public domain)